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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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quality of the education system. The projections were computed separately for East and West Pakistan and the results combined for ease of analysis.
Enrollments
As shown in Table 12, the three population projections for Pakistan use the same mortality assumption so that differences in population growth are entirely attributable to trends in fertility. The decline in fertility, it will be noted, is both earlier and sharper in Projection III than in Projection II. Even this rapid decline in fertility, however, takes time to bring down the rate of population growth to moderate levels: the average annual rate of increase in the 1980's is still as high as 2.3 percent. The decline in fertility begins to affect numbers at the primary school ages after about 5 years, and at the
TABLE 12 Assumptions Underlying Educational Projections for Pakistan
1.   Population Projections
Mortality: expectation of life at birth rises at a constant rate from its 1960 levela to a 1980-85 level of 60.8 years for males and 63.8 years for females in East Pakistan, and 61.3 years for males and 63.8 years for females in West Pakistan.
Fertility
Projection I:     remains constant at its 1960-65 level throughout the period. Projection II:   remains constant until 1970 and then declines linearly by 30% to the
period 1980-85. Projection III: beginning 1965, declines linearly by 50% up to 1980-85.
2.   Enrollment Rates: Rising ER Assumption"
Primary level (5-10 years)
East Pakistan  rises from 37% in 1960 to 90% in 1985 and to 95% in 1990. West Pakistan rises from 30.1% in 1960 to 90% in 1985 and to 95% in 1990.
Secondary level (11-17 years)
East Pakistan  rises from 7% in 1960 to 50% in 1990. West Pakistan rises from 14.5% in 1960 to 50% in 1990.
3.   Pupil/Teacher Ratios: Improving PTR Assumption^
Primary level
East Pakistan  falls from 39 in 1960 to 30 in 1990. West Pakistan falls from 33 in 1960 to 30 in 1990.
Secondary level
East Pakistan   remains constant at 20. West Pakistan declines from 35 in 1960 to 20 in 1990.
a49.2 years for males and 46.9 years for females in East Pakistan; 51.1 years for males and 48.7 years for females in West Pakistan.
"Except where noted, it is assumed that changes are linear.
Source: (38).ant at their base-year level, the other that they would increase rapidly, though less rapidly than they would if the ambitious goals set out in Pakistan's Third Five-Year Plan were attained. Two different assumptions about pupil/teacher ratios were applied to the resulting enrollment projections: one that they would remain at their base-year level, the other that the ratio would be lowered, implying an improvement in the